The Shy Tory Factor is a name given by British opinion polling ... -
shy tory factor

The Shy Tory Factor is a name given by British opinion polling ...

wikipedia - 09 Nov 2016
The Shy Tory Factor is a name given by British opinion polling companies to a phenomenon first observed by psephologists in the early 1990s. They observed that the share of the electoral vote won by the Conservative Party (known colloquially as the 'Tories') was significantly higher than the equivalent share in opinion polls. The accepted explanation was that so-called "shy Tories" were voting Conservative after telling pollsters they would not. It has only been present in the 1992 General Election,
shy tory factor

Ireland Votes to Remove Constitutional Protection for the Unborn

The Unshackled | Breaking the Chains of Control (blog) - 27 May 2018
This is the opposite of what is known as the shy Tory factor where many people do not tell pollsters they are voting for conservative candidates or conservative proposition. This theory would imply that many who voted yes still know deep down abortion ...
shy tory factor

The return of the shy Tories?

The Economist - 08 May 2015
The best-known example of the “shy Toryfactor was the 1992 election, on which the Tories partly based their campaign this time. Then, as now, the Conservatives were unloved but trusted on the economy. Labour had an unpopular leader and had not ...
shy tory factor

Theresa May is still keeping MPs guessing - 26 May 2018
Tory whips are already weighing every vote ahead of the showdown. One factor in the decision on the timing of the debates was a desire to get the business out of the way before the Lewisham East byelection on June 14, triggered by the resignation of ...
shy tory factor

Are The UK Polls Skewed?

FiveThirtyEight - 03 Jun 2017
There was an even worse error in 1992, when polls showed Labour narrowly ahead but instead Conservatives won in a landslide, making for a 9-point polling miss. That election gave rise to the term “Shy Tory Factor,” the idea that Conservative (Tory ...
shy tory factor

'Shy' Voters Probably Aren't Why The Polls Missed Trump

FiveThirtyEight - 16 Nov 2016
Donald Trump won the presidential election despite polls that indicated Hillary Clinton was favored. One popular explanation for this is that some people were afraid to admit to pollsters that they supported Trump — what's being called the “shy Trump” ...
shy tory factor

If you want more accurate polls, stop shaming shy Tories

The Guardian - 12 May 2015
I can only testify to experience of this country for the last 28 years, but surely the emergence of the “shy Tory” stereotype is historically recent. In an inversion of the old order, the privilege with which Tories are associated has become a cultural ...
shy tory factor

The Tories are going green, and it's no gimmick

iNews - 12 Jan 2018
Given past experiences, it is no surprise that the sight of Theresa May stepping up to a lectern to deliver a set-piece speech heightens the blood pressure of her aides. Yet the Prime Minister and her team were the picture of calm on Thursday as she ...
shy tory factor

The UK Snap Election Is Riskier Than It Seems

FiveThirtyEight - 18 Apr 2017
(See also: the Shy Tory Factor.) But if polls are missing election outcomes by 5 or 6 points on average, that means the margin of error (or 95 percent confidence interval) is very large indeed. Specifically, a 6-point average error in forecasting the ...

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